The Executive Risk Map
The Executive Risk Map
The Executive Risk Map is a compact structure for turning a broad concern into a defined decision process.
Use one map for one decision. If the map contains several unrelated decisions, split it.
1. Decision
State the decision in one sentence.
Example format:
Should the organisation proceed with, pause, reduce or exit [defined activity] within [time horizon]?
Avoid broad labels such as “Iran risk”. A decision must have an object, owner and time frame.
2. Exposure
Describe what could be affected.
- financial;
- legal or regulatory;
- operational;
- counterparty;
- people and safety;
- reputation;
- data or intellectual property;
- strategic positioning.
Record the value, dependency and reversibility where possible.
3. Current assessment
Summarise the present position in no more than five lines.
Include:
- current direction;
- material change;
- confidence level;
- main uncertainty;
- immediate implication.
4. Signal map
List only the developments that could alter the decision.
For each signal record:
- source;
- date;
- category;
- why it is material;
- confidence: A, B or C;
- scenario affected.
5. Mechanisms
Explain how the signal could reach the exposure.
Common mechanisms include:
- legal restriction;
- enforcement expectation;
- banking or insurance de-risking;
- currency or pricing pressure;
- supply or logistics disruption;
- ownership concern;
- political scrutiny;
- reputational reinterpretation;
- business-continuity failure.
6. Scenarios
Base
What happens if the current direction continues?
Stress
What credible deterioration increases cost, delay, scrutiny or instability?
Shock
What lower-probability event could invalidate the current plan?
For each scenario include:
- probability direction, not false precision;
- time horizon;
- trigger indicators;
- operational effect;
- decision implication.
7. Options
List available actions under four headings:
Act now
Actions justified by current evidence.
Prepare
Reversible steps that preserve future choice.
Defer
Decisions that should wait for more evidence.
Escalate
Issues requiring legal, regulated, board or specialist review.
8. Triggers
Define explicit thresholds.
- Green: conditions supporting continuation.
- Amber: conditions requiring review, additional information or preparation.
- Red: conditions requiring pause, exit or senior escalation.
A trigger should be observable. “Things get worse” is not a trigger.
9. Unknowns
List the information gaps that could materially alter the assessment.
For each unknown record:
- why it matters;
- who can answer it;
- how reliable the answer is likely to be;
- deadline;
- what happens if it remains unresolved.
10. Ownership
Record:
- decision owner;
- analytical owner;
- legal or compliance adviser;
- next review date;
- approval required;
- record location.
Blank one-page template
Decision:
Time horizon:
Decision owner:
Exposure:
Current assessment:
Key signals:
Transmission mechanisms:
Base scenario:
Stress scenario:
Shock scenario:
Green triggers:
Amber triggers:
Red triggers:
Act now:
Prepare:
Defer:
Escalate:
Unknowns:
Next review date:
The map is valuable only if it changes a real decision process. It should be brief enough to use, specific enough to audit, and current enough to trust.